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| State of the Fluid
Power Industry Manufacturers' Survey |
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| For the Month of January 2005 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| This Month's Survey at a Glance: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| How the Numbers Changed This Month | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Figures in first chart indicate the change in the index for each response category compared with last month’s survey. Each change in this chart corresponds to the change in the final entry on one of the General State of the Industry graphs that follow. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Industry Segment |
Orders | Shipments | |||||||||||||||||||||
| This Month vs. Same Month Last Year |
Next
Month vs. Next Month Last Year |
Next
Quarter vs. This Quarter |
Next
12 Months vs. Last 12 Months |
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| Pneumatic | +4 | -5 | -9 | -4 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Industrial Hyd. | +7 | -7 | -12 | -3 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Mobile Hyd. | +4 | -12 | +1 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Employment: Next 3 Months |
0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Backlog: Total Industry |
+14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| General Signal: |
For the most part, the consensus was subject to only minor fine tuning this month. Most indexes saw modest single-digit moves, and 2 held steady. Only 3 indexes recorded double-digit moves, despite a drop in survey participation. On average, the consensus look ahead got slightly more conservative, as the red numbers all came in the forward-looking indicators. This view aligns nicely with other, broader sentiment indicators, such as the Institute of Supply Management's PMI. One significant positive this month is the big rebound in backlog. This recovers roughly half of the cumulative slide since last spring. Returning to the big picture, the view remains favorable. There is only one index that has slipped down into the 60s. | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Current Data: General State of the Industry |
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| Orders: This Month vs. Same Month 1 Year Ago |
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| Industry Segment |
Sample
Size |
%
Higher |
%
Same |
%
Lower |
Index | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pneumatic | 45 | 61.1 | 22.2 | 16.7 | 72.2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Industrial Hyd. | 45 | 75.0 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 87.5 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Mobile Hyd. | 45 | 76.6 | 10.0 | 13.4 | 81.6 | ||||||||||||||||||
| All three sectors recorded modest gains this month, after losing ground last time. The +4 in Pneumatic this time pales compared to -19 last time, but at least the volatility is down. The +7 in Industrial more than reverses the -2 last time, and keeps this sector the strongest. Mobile exactly reversed last month, and moved back into the 80s. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Orders: Next Month vs. Same Month 1 Year Ago |
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| Industry Segment |
Sample
Size |
%
Higher |
%
Same |
%
Lower |
Index | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pneumatic | 45 | 61.1 | 22.2 | 16.7 | 72.2 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Industrial Hyd. | 45 | 58.3 | 25.0 | 16.7 | 70.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Mobile Hyd. | 45 | 46.6 | 36.6 | 16.8 | 64.9 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pneumatic and Industrial saw similar moderate declines. So they remain closely grouped. The double-digit decline in Mobile pushed this sector down into the mid-60s for the first time since November of 2003. It is interesting to note that the difference across sectors is driven almost totally by the % higher vs. % same components. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Orders: Next Quarter vs. Current Quarter |
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| Industry Segment |
Sample
Size |
%
Higher |
%
Same |
%
Lower |
Index | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pneumatic | 45 | 55.5 | 44.5 | 0.0 | 77.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Industrial Hyd. | 45 | 54.1 | 33.3 | 12.6 | 70.8 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Mobile Hyd. | 45 | 56.6 | 33.3 | 10.1 | 73.3 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pneumatic and Industrial both lost ground, and Mobile was essentially unchanged, (given that a 1 point move is well within the margin for error). This caused Pneumatic & Industrial to join Mobile in the 70s. While down from recent highs, these readings are still at the higher end of the range for the last three years. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Shipments: Next 12 Months vs. Last 12 Months |
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| Industry Segment |
Sample
Size |
%
Higher |
%
Same |
%
Lower |
Index | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pneumatic | 45 | 72.2 | 16.6 | 11.2 | 80.5 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Industrial Hyd. | 45 | 75.0 | 20.8 | 4.2 | 85.4 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Mobile Hyd. | 45 | 80.0 | 16.6 | 3.4 | 88.3 | ||||||||||||||||||
| The shipments indexes remain pretty stable and very strong. Modest declines in Pneumatic & Mobile essentially reversed modest gains from last time. Mobile held steady. Mobile hasn't been below 80 since June of 2003. The 80 or better string for Pneumatic goes back to September 2003. And Industrial has had only one sub-80 reading during that time. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Employment & Backlog |
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| Industry-Wide Indicator |
Sample
Size |
%
Higher |
%
Same |
%
Lower |
Index | ||||||||||||||||||
| Employment | 45 | 42.2 | 57.8 | 0.0 | 71.1 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Backlog | 45 | 60.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 70.0 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Most notable this time is the big move in the backlog. This is the best reading since last April. Employment was essentially unchanged. It has been in the 70-73 range for 5 consecutive months, and 7 of the last 8 months. The % lower figure has been zero for 3 of the last 4 months. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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